The S&P is above its 89-day line. Volatility is high, so we are holding less in stocks, by rule, not by nerve. Inflation is hot, the one condition that takes stocks and bonds down together, so the reserve waits in cash rather than bonds. Valuation is extreme against its own history: weather to note, not to act on. None of this is a prediction. It is a position you can hold.
The discipline's current posture: trend sets whether you hold stocks, volatility sets how much, and the reserve sits in the Anchor or in cash by the real-rate and inflation reading.
The reading drives a three-fund discipline: SPY for growth, IEF for the bond Anchor, BIL for dry powder. Two signals set how much you hold in stocks. Trend is the S&P 500 against its 89-day moving average, confirmed by two closes; it decides whether you hold stocks at all. Volatility is the S&P's 63-day realized volatility against its own history; it decides how much, trimming your stocks when the tape turns wild. Whatever is not in stocks becomes the reserve: it sits in intermediate Treasuries when real yields are high and inflation is contained, and in cash otherwise. Inflation is a one-way veto, not a forecast: it can only keep you out of bonds, never push you in, the rule that avoided the 2022 trap. Valuation is published as awareness, not as an allocator: it grades how much danger the market is standing in, but it does not move the posture. The signals are read daily; the discipline rebalances weekly.
Source data: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), public domain, computed by the Climate Compass engine. As of: fundamentals 2026-01-01, rates 2026-06-26, price 2026-06-29.
Read it, argue with it, and make your own call. It is general information, not personal advice. Markets carry real risk and the past guarantees nothing.